"The Struggle Continues" by WCM 09/15/08

There was a LOT of information the market had to digest today. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 protection, Merrill Lynch has been gobbled up by Bank of America and the headlines are sure to continue to roll in on the future of insurance giant AIG.

It is clear (crystal clear) that there is a lot of fear in the market over the future of financials. We can’t even say for sure if we have seen a bottom in financials.  Just when we thought the worst was over for the financials, we are brought into another round of angst that once again centers around the US mortgage and housing market. 

With Oil Prices down over $50 from their high, the Federal Reserve bailout of Freddie and Fannie in the rear view mirror,  and the fear of inflation dissipating as commodity prices retreat, we would think that it should be a time to celebrate.  But the balance sheets of financials continue to bring much uncertainty.  So much so, that even the brightest minds on Wall Street can't say with certainty just how deep the mortgage and derivative mess will go.  It is scary to see just how fragile our markets can be and to see just how fast things can deteriorate.  Case in point, Lehman Brothers, a firm that has been around for 158 years, who reported their first quarterly loss last quarter, files for bankruptcy over the weekend.  Even as of last Friday they were still showing an investment grade debt rating and a twenty-eight plus billion dollar shareholder equity on the balance sheet.

There is an expectation the Fed will lower rates to satisfy the continued need for liquidity in the financial markets.   While AIG is looking for cash to help shore up their balance sheet until they can sell off some of their assets, and Lehman “unwinds” there brokerage assets, we will continue to see added stress to an already stressed market.
 

 

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