"The New Normal...Bring on Boring" by WCM 09/20/09

The past couple of years have been anything but normal.  Actually, the last ten to fifteen years have been a roller coaster ride for stock investors.  You had the run-up in the late 90’s mostly due to the tech boom, only to be followed by a two plus year correction.  You then had another run-up from 2003 through late-2007 which was spurred on by low interest rates (which also helped lead the housing boom).  That was followed by, well, you know……

Most studies show that the returns for the average retail investor trail index returns by a significant margin (mostly attributed to emotional decision making). So when we hear the statistics that tell us money markets have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last ten years, and treasury bonds have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last twenty years, most people would have chosen “boring” over equities, if they could do it all over again.  Even corporate bonds have only trailed equities by 40bps (.40% annually) over twenty years.  And that is with much less volatility and risk.

The two paragraphs above may seem like we are trying to make an argument for not investing in equities--not so.  We believe taking a broad asset allocation and sector diversification approach to equities fits nicely within a balanced portfolio.  That being said, we also believe the general public has put too much stock (pun intended) into equities as the only vehicle for growth.

 Most of our clients are near retirement, or in retirement.  We like to use the term “choice living,” which means you are financially able to choose whether you want to work or not, not whether you NEED to work or not.  For those currently, or soon to be, using cash flow from your “nest egg,” you simply can’t let this market punch you in the gut so hard that you can’t get back up.  If you are 65 years old, with a withdrawal rate of 5% on $1 million (50k), and you are too heavily allocated to equities, you just can’t afford a market drop of 35%.  This drawdown would now make your withdrawal rate over 8%.  Don’t forget that not only did the market bring your portfolio down, you also took your principal value down by $50k.  This one bad event can put you in a position that you may never be able to recover from.  At that point, you either take a retirement “pay cut,” you increase the risk of outliving your money, or you increase the risk of your portfolio to try to “make back” what you lost.  None of these are good options.  We continue to stress that minimizing any drawdowns is one of the most important things you can do to achieve long-term success with your portfolio, especially if you are already taking systematic withdrawals to supplement your income.

We don’t mind being a broken record.  We like the song “Allocation with and Emphasis on Yield.”  Proper allocation, including tactical sector weightings, along with fixed-income and non-correlated alternatives are key to a successful retirement portfolio.

This type of portfolio might be boring and may put you to sleep, but at least you will sleep.  Life needs to be exciting, not your investment portfolio.  Let the era of boring begin!

 

 

Locations

Arizona
20860 N Tatum Blvd., Suite 220
Phoenix, Arizona 85050
Phone: 480.515.3514

California
3500 West Olive Avenue, Suite 300
Burbank, California 91505
Phone: 818.720.4425

Illinois
2021 Midwest Road, Suite 200
Oak Brook, Illinois 60523
Phone: 630.515.1810